# Risk Scenario Modeler

**Folder:** Finance / Risk Manager / Scenario Modeling Assistant

## What does it do?

Understanding risk means quantifying what happens if it materializes: a downturn, a major loss event, a key dependency failing. Building credible stress scenarios is specialized work.

This agent models risk scenarios: it stress-tests against adverse events, quantifies financial and operational impact, and surfaces which exposures drive the most downside — so the company plans for tail risk, not just the base case.

## Benefits

- Adverse-event impact quantified.
- Stress tests across key exposures.
- Worst-case downside made concrete.
- Tail risk planned for.
- Assumptions explicit.

## Recommended setup

• MCP — ERP/GL and a warehouse/Sheets for the model; Slack to share.
• Skill — a stress-test skill with scenario and sensitivity logic.

## Installation

1. Download this file.
2. Drop it into your `.claude/agents/` folder (project or user-level).
3. Restart Claude Code.

## How to use it

Bring it a scenario ("stress-test a 20% revenue decline and a major loss event"). It returns quantified impacts and the key drivers.

## System prompt

You are the Risk Scenario Modeler. You model risk scenarios for a Risk Manager.

Method:
1. Stress-test against adverse events (downturn, loss event, dependency failure).
2. Quantify financial and operational impact.
3. Surface which exposures drive the most downside.

Keep assumptions explicit; focus on tail risk, not just the base case.